圆通速递（600233）：量价平衡优于行业，业绩符合预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 19.94 [7][8]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated better volume and price balance compared to the industry, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 10.2% to RMB 35.88 billion in the first half of 2025, although net profit decreased by 7.9% to RMB 1.83 billion [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from industry price recovery due to regulatory actions against excessive competition, which may enhance profitability in the second half of the year [4][5]. - The company's market share has improved, with a 21.8% increase in express delivery volume, outperforming the industry average [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 35.88 billion, a 10.2% increase year-on-year, while net profit was RMB 1.83 billion, down 7.9% [1]. - The second quarter saw revenues of RMB 18.82 billion, with a 9.8% year-on-year increase, and net profit of RMB 0.97 billion, a decrease of 6.8% [1]. Market Position - The company’s express delivery volume reached 14.86 billion pieces in the first half of 2025, a 21.8% increase, leading to a market share increase to 15.5% [2]. - The average revenue per package decreased by 6.6% to RMB 2.19, which is less than the industry average decline of 7.7% [2]. Cost Management - The company's single-package gross profit decreased by 25.3% to RMB 0.17 due to intense competition, with costs per package decreasing by 4.5% to RMB 2.02 [3]. - The company has effectively managed costs, with transportation costs per package down by 12.8% to RMB 0.37 [3]. Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to lead to price increases across the industry, alleviating pressure on franchise operations and improving profitability [4]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of RMB 3.76 billion, RMB 4.43 billion, and RMB 5.06 billion respectively [5][11].