SCIE(SH:600546) Minsheng Securities·2025-08-28 05:57Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, considering the potential reversal in coal prices [3][5]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 9.66 billion yuan, down 31.3% year-on-year, and net profit at 655 million yuan, down 49.3% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company showed signs of recovery with a revenue of 5.16 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.6% increase quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 400 million yuan, up 56.9% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.332 billion yuan, 1.521 billion yuan, and 1.633 billion yuan respectively, translating to EPS of 0.67 yuan, 0.77 yuan, and 0.82 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 13, and 12 times [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company produced 17.82 million tons of raw coal, up 15.9% year-on-year, while total coal sales were 17.88 million tons, down 14.1% year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price of coal decreased by 21.3% year-on-year to 519.9 yuan per ton, with the cost of self-produced coal at 353.7 yuan per ton, down 18.8% year-on-year [2]. - Q2 2025 saw a raw coal production of 8.73 million tons, with total coal sales at 10.26 million tons, reflecting a 34.4% increase quarter-on-quarter [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for coal business was 32.0% in H1 2025, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for self-produced coal was 50.6%, down 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2025, the coal business gross margin was 30.1%, down 4.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with self-produced coal gross margin at 47.4%, down 7.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Future Projections - The report projects a revenue of 25.82 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 12.7% year-on-year, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [4][10]. - The net profit is expected to decline by 41.3% in 2025, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 with growth rates of 14.2% and 7.4% respectively [4][10].