迎驾贡酒（603198）：Q2需求承压，蓄力改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 3.16 billion yuan, down 16.89% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.13 billion yuan, down 18.19% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter saw an even sharper decline, with total revenue of 1.11 billion yuan, down 24.13% year-on-year, and net profit of 302 million yuan, down 35.20% year-on-year [1] - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor segment performed better than the ordinary liquor segment, with revenue of 2.54 billion yuan and 452 million yuan respectively in the first half of 2025, showing declines of 14.01% and 32.47% year-on-year [2] - The company’s performance in its home province was relatively better than in other provinces, with home province revenue of 2.36 billion yuan, down 12.00%, compared to 625 million yuan from outside the province, down 33.05% in the first half of 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's net profit margin was 35.76%, down 0.57 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin was 73.62%, up 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The total expense ratio increased by 2.00 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios increasing by 1.75, 1.15, -0.13, and -0.77 percentage points respectively [3] - In the second quarter of 2025, the net profit margin dropped to 27.10%, down 4.64 percentage points year-on-year, and the gross profit margin fell to 68.33%, down 2.62 percentage points year-on-year [3] Revenue Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.14 billion yuan, 2.30 billion yuan, and 2.50 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of -17.50%, 7.85%, and 8.39% [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are projected to be 17, 16, and 14 times [4] Market Position - The company has optimized its dealer structure, with a total of 761 dealers in its home province and 622 dealers outside the province as of the first half of 2025, showing slight increases from the previous quarter [2]