WLY(SZ:000858) Ping An Securities·2025-08-28 08:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wuliangye is "Recommended" [1][5][8] Core Views - Wuliangye reported stable revenue growth with a 4.2% year-on-year increase in revenue for 1H25, reaching 52.8 billion yuan, and a 2.3% increase in net profit, totaling 19.5 billion yuan [5][8] - The company maintains a stable contract liability of 10.1 billion yuan, reflecting consistent operational performance [8] - Despite a slight decline in profitability, the company is expected to continue returning value to shareholders with a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% and a minimum of 20 billion yuan in dividends from 2024 to 2027 [8] Financial Summary - For 1H25, Wuliangye's product revenue breakdown shows the main product generated 41 billion yuan, up 4.6%, while other liquor products and other businesses contributed 8.1 billion yuan and 3.7 billion yuan, respectively [8] - The company’s gross margin for 2Q25 was 74.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decline in product structure [8] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 30.8 billion yuan, 31.1 billion yuan, and 32.8 billion yuan, respectively [8][11] Revenue and Profitability Projections - Projected revenue for Wuliangye is expected to grow from 89.2 billion yuan in 2024 to 97.1 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.1% [11] - The net profit is projected to decline slightly in 2025 to 30.8 billion yuan, before recovering to 32.8 billion yuan by 2027 [11] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 76.3% from 2025 to 2027, while the net margin is projected to be around 33.6% to 33.7% during the same period [11] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout, ensuring that shareholders receive consistent returns, with a commitment to distribute at least 20 billion yuan annually from 2024 to 2027 [8][11]