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五粮液(000858):降速调整,深耕渠道谋长远

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][12]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 52.771 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.19%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 19.492 billion yuan, up 2.28% [2]. - The company is focusing on channel construction and deepening its market presence, with stable sales growth in the first half of 2025 [3][4]. - The gross margin for the company's products slightly decreased by 0.24 percentage points, and increased expenses affected the net profit margin in Q2 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from Wuliangye products and other liquor products was 40.998 billion yuan and 8.122 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.57% and 2.73%. Sales volume increased by 12.75% and 58.81%, while average prices decreased by 7.25% and 35.31% [3]. - The company's total revenue for Q2 2025 was 15.831 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.10%, but net profit decreased by 7.58% [2]. Channel Development - The company achieved steady growth in revenue from distribution and direct sales channels, with revenues of 27.925 billion yuan and 21.195 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 1.20% and 8.60% [4]. - The number of distributors for Wuliangye and Wuliang Nuo Xiang products decreased by 20 and increased by 127, respectively, while the number of specialty stores decreased by 18 [4]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth in the eastern region led the company, with H1 2025 revenues of 20.109 billion yuan, up 7.88%, compared to 21.886 billion yuan in the southern region (up 1.93%) and 7.124 billion yuan in the northern region (up 1.82%) [4]. Profitability and Forecast - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 76.83%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points year-on-year, with the gross margins for Wuliangye and other liquor products at 86.45% and 60.74%, respectively [5]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 30.835 billion yuan, 32.376 billion yuan, and 33.803 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.20%, 5.00%, and 4.41% [6].