坚朗五金（002791）：收入结算延迟，海外快速增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 31.77 [1][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.755 billion for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 14.18%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 30.43 million, which aligns with the company's previous earnings forecast [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to delays in the settlement of certain installation services, but the company is expected to benefit from improved cash flow management and favorable real estate policies in first-tier cities [1][4]. - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas revenue, which grew by 30.75% year-on-year, while domestic revenue decreased by 19.95% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenues of RMB 2.755 billion, with a Q2 revenue of RMB 1.549 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 16.02% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.42% [1][2]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 30.37%, a slight decrease of 0.89 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company maintained a strict control over expenses, with a total expense ratio of 27.9% for H1 2025, down 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market Outlook - The real estate market has shown signs of weakness, with sales and construction area declines, but recent policy changes in cities like Beijing may stimulate demand for building hardware [4]. - The company is actively expanding its market presence, having established nearly 20 overseas warehouses to enhance supply chain responsiveness [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are RMB 6.613 billion, RMB 7.126 billion, and RMB 7.857 billion, respectively, with net profits projected at RMB 194.63 million, RMB 251.71 million, and RMB 314.36 million [5][11]. - The target price of RMB 31.77 is based on a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 1.7x for 2025, reflecting the company's strong correlation with the real estate sector [5].