WLY(SZ:000858) Guoxin Securities·2025-08-28 08:57Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][22]. Core Views - The company has shown resilient revenue and net profit growth in H1 2025, with total revenue reaching 52.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and net profit of 19.49 billion yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 net profit margin faced slight pressure [1][5]. - The company’s product revenue growth outpaced the average, although overall unit prices experienced a slight decline. The revenue from liquor products in H1 2025 was 49.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.26%, with sales volume up 44.59% but unit price down 27.89% [2][5]. - The direct sales model is growing faster than the overall market, with direct sales channel revenue in H1 2025 reaching 21.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6% [3][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 52.77 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, and a net profit of 19.49 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.3% increase year-on-year. Q2 2025 saw total revenue of 15.83 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.1%, but net profit decreased by 7.6% to 4.63 billion yuan [1][5]. Product Performance - The company’s liquor revenue in H1 2025 was 49.12 billion yuan, up 4.26% year-on-year, driven by a 12.7% increase in sales volume for its flagship product, while the unit price decreased by 7.3%. The revenue from other liquor products was 8.12 billion yuan, a 2.7% increase year-on-year, with significant promotional efforts impacting pricing [2][5]. Channel Strategy - The company is enhancing its channel layout, with revenue from the distribution channel in H1 2025 at 27.92 billion yuan, a 1.2% increase year-on-year. The top five distributors contributed 30.06 billion yuan, a significant increase of 181% year-on-year. The direct sales channel revenue was 21.19 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year growth [3][5]. Financial Forecast - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 91.07 billion yuan, 95.70 billion yuan, and 101.28 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 2.1%, 5.1%, and 5.8% respectively. The forecasted net profit for the same period is 31.13 billion yuan, 32.06 billion yuan, and 34.35 billion yuan, with a slight decline in 2025 [5][6].