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宏观经济研究:2025年9月大类资产配置报告

Global Economic Overview - The US economy is in a recovery phase, with the S&P 500 index reaching new highs, while US Treasury yields remain stable[1] - The US has implemented a new round of tariffs, with a trade agreement framework reached with multiple countries, though key terms are yet to be executed[1] - Inflation risks coexist with a cooling labor market, leaving the Federal Reserve in a difficult position regarding monetary policy[1] Domestic Economic Conditions - The real estate sector in China continues to face contraction pressures, with the effectiveness of policies like "trade-in for new" diminishing[1] - Government policies in August leaned more towards fiscal measures rather than monetary easing, maintaining high real interest rates that suppress economic vitality[1] - The demand remains weak, with low price levels persisting in the domestic market[1] Asset Allocation Insights - International stock markets are the primary source of profit, benefiting from a weaker dollar and improved international trade conditions[1] - The report suggests a bullish outlook on copper prices and a hedging strategy with oil, while being bearish on international bond markets[1] - The global asset allocation index indicates a shift towards equities, particularly in non-US markets, as the dollar weakens[1] Risks and Challenges - Risks include domestic macroeconomic policies falling short of expectations, potential overseas economic recession, commodity price volatility, and unexpected shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy[2]