Investment Rating - The investment rating for Mixue Group has been upgraded from Outperform to Buy, indicating a strong expectation of performance exceeding the market by over 20% [6][11][23] Core Insights - Mixue Group reported a revenue of Rmb14.9 billion for 1H25, representing a year-on-year growth of 39%, and a net profit of Rmb2.7 billion, which is a 44% increase year-on-year. The net profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 18.3%, exceeding expectations primarily due to higher-than-expected new store openings [6][7][11] - The forecast for net profit in 2025 has been raised from Rmb5.2 billion to Rmb5.6 billion, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain at Rmb6.2 billion and Rmb7.4 billion, respectively. The target price has been adjusted from HK$565 to HK$566, reflecting a 23% upside potential [6][7][11] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for Mixue Group are as follows: - 2023: Rmb20.302 billion - 2024: Rmb24.829 billion - 2025E: Rmb32.459 billion - 2026E: Rmb36.238 billion - 2027E: Rmb42.233 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 50% for 2023, 22% for 2024, 31% for 2025, 12% for 2026, and 17% for 2027 [5][14] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: Rmb3.187 billion - 2024: Rmb4.454 billion - 2025E: Rmb5.569 billion - 2026E: Rmb6.183 billion - 2027E: Rmb7.369 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 57% for 2023, 41% for 2024, 25% for 2025, 11% for 2026, and 19% for 2027 [5][14] Store Expansion and Market Presence - The total number of global stores exceeded 53,000, with a net addition of 9,796 stores in 1H25, including 9,668 in mainland China and 128 overseas. The total store count increased by 23% year-on-year [6][8] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with positive growth in daily sales in Southeast Asia and plans for new store openings in the Eastern US, Western US, Mexico, and Brazil [9][11] Brand Development - The Lucky Coffee brand complements Mixue Bingcheng stores by focusing on freshly-made coffee, utilizing semi-automatic machines for on-site grinding, while Mixue Bingcheng primarily offers coffee as a supplement to its tea menu [10][11]
蜜雪集团（02097）：1H25业绩超预期