兴发集团（600141）：强化资源端实力，景气有望回升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.62 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 730 million yuan, a decrease of 9.7% year-on-year [5][10]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.39 billion yuan, up 13.4% year-on-year and 2.3% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 420 million yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year but up 34.0% quarter-on-quarter [5][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from a potential recovery in the prices of glyphosate and silicone, driven by improved overseas demand and limited new production capacity [10][11]. - The company is actively advancing its special chemicals segment, with several projects expected to contribute to revenue growth [10][11]. - The acquisition of a 50% stake in Qiaogou Mining will strengthen the company's resource capabilities, with plans for significant production increases in the coming years [10][11]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the phosphate chemical industry, with a complete industrial chain and strong R&D capabilities, and is expected to see a recovery in performance as market conditions improve [10][11]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company's main products experienced price declines, impacting performance, with average sales prices for key products showing various year-on-year changes [10]. - The company's gross margin and net margin for Q2 2025 were 19.9% and 6.1%, respectively, with slight year-on-year declines but improvements quarter-on-quarter [10]. - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.99 billion yuan, 2.84 billion yuan, and 3.56 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10].