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晨光生物(300138):原料成本下行+多品类发力,盈利能力显著修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company has shown significant recovery in profitability due to declining raw material costs and expansion across multiple product categories [2][3] - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.658 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, with a notable net profit growth of 115% [2][3] - The gross margin improved to approximately 14%, up by 5.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [3] Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the plant extraction business generated 1.733 billion yuan in revenue, a 9% increase year-on-year, while the cottonseed business brought in 1.765 billion yuan, a 2% increase [2] - The company reported a net profit of 215 million yuan in H1 2025, with Q2 net profit reaching 105 million yuan, reflecting a 72% year-on-year increase [2] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 5.9%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] Business Performance - The plant extraction segment saw a 43% increase in sales volume for chili red products, while the premium chili category experienced an 81% increase in sales [4] - The cottonseed business benefited from improved market conditions for commodities like soybean oil and meal, leading to a turnaround in profitability [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 327 million yuan, 407 million yuan, and 497 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 248%, 24%, and 22% [5] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are estimated to be 18x, 14x, and 12x for the same years [5]