KinLong(SZ:002791) Ping An Securities·2025-08-28 11:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [1][5]. Core Views - The company continues to face pressure on its performance, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 14.2% in the latest report, resulting in a net loss of 0.3 million yuan compared to a profit of 489 thousand yuan in the same period last year [3][4]. - The company has successfully reduced operating expenses from 900 million yuan to 770 million yuan, although the revenue decline has kept the expense ratio stable year-on-year [4]. - The overseas business is growing rapidly, with a revenue increase of 30.75% compared to a domestic decline of 19.95%. The gross margin for overseas sales is higher at 34.26% compared to 29.56% domestically [4]. - Despite a slight decrease in operating cash flow, accounts receivable have improved, decreasing from 3.85 billion yuan to 3.21 billion yuan year-on-year [4]. Financial Summary - The company is expected to have net profits of 0.9 million yuan, 1.5 million yuan, and 2.4 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, down from previous forecasts of 2.0 million yuan, 2.7 million yuan, and 3.3 million yuan [5]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 93 times, 55 times, and 34 times, respectively [5]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 5.974 billion yuan, 6.273 billion yuan, and 6.900 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -10.0%, 5.0%, and 10.0% [6][10]. - The gross margin is projected to be 30.6%, 31.0%, and 31.5% for the years 2025 to 2027 [10]. Key Financial Ratios - The company’s asset-liability ratio is projected to be 39.7%, 37.1%, and 37.3% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 1.6% in 2025 to 4.0% in 2027 [10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.24 yuan, 0.42 yuan, and 0.67 yuan, respectively [10].