YTO(SH:600233) Dongxing Securities·2025-08-28 11:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for YTO Express [2][5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 35.883 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.831 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.90% [3] - The business volume grew steadily, with a total of 14.863 billion parcels delivered in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.79% [3] - The decline in single-ticket revenue due to price wars was a significant factor in the decrease in net profit [3][4] - The company has optimized its cost structure, with single-ticket costs decreasing from 2.11 yuan to 2.02 yuan, a reduction of 4.51% [4] - The company is focusing on improving service quality, with a significant reduction in lost parcels and false sign-offs [5] Revenue and Profitability - The company's single-ticket revenue in H1 2025 was 2.19 yuan, down 6.27% from the previous year [3] - The gross profit per single ticket decreased by 25.34% year-on-year, from 0.23 yuan to 0.17 yuan [4] - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.98 billion yuan, 4.66 billion yuan, and 5.15 billion yuan, respectively [5][10] Market Position and Strategy - YTO Express's market share increased from 15.2% to 15.5% year-on-year [3] - The company is expanding its reverse logistics business, which has seen a growth of over 112% [5] - Regulatory attention on price wars is expected to ease competitive pressures, potentially improving profitability [5] Financial Metrics - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 58.794 billion yuan [7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.15 yuan, 1.35 yuan, and 1.50 yuan, respectively [5][10] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the same years are projected to be 14.9X, 12.7X, and 11.5X [5][10]