珠江啤酒（002461）：珠水长流四十载，鹏徙南冥势正遒

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for Zhujiang Beer [6]. Core Views - Zhujiang Beer has established itself as the leading beer brand in Guangdong Province, benefiting from a strong market foundation and consumer recognition. The company has shown consistent revenue and profit growth, with a projected revenue CAGR of 7.8% and a net profit CAGR of 9.2% from 2020 to 2024 [1][2]. - The company is embracing high-end product strategies, with the proportion of high-end beer revenue increasing from 49.1% in 2019 to 70.8% in 2024, supported by a well-structured product matrix [1][2][35]. - The competitive landscape in Guangdong is shifting, with Zhujiang Beer gaining market share as Budweiser's share declines, while Yanjing Beer is also emerging through its sub-brand Liqueur [1][2][60]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhujiang Beer has a 40-year history and is controlled by the Guangzhou State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a stake from Anheuser-Busch InBev, balancing innovation and stability [1][2][26]. - The company focuses on its core beer business, with 96.2% of revenue derived from beer sales in 2024 [33]. Market Analysis - Guangdong Province is a significant market for beer, with a large population and high economic development, presenting opportunities for consumption upgrades [1][2][55]. - The province has become the largest beer producer in China, surpassing Shandong, with a CAGR of 12.6% from 1982 to 2024 [51][52]. Competitive Landscape - Zhujiang Beer has rapidly developed its market share, with sales exceeding 1.4 million tons in 2024, while Budweiser's market share has been declining [60]. - Yanjing Beer, through its Liqueur brand, is also gaining traction in the market, although Qingdao Beer remains relatively weak in Guangdong [60][66]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Zhujiang Beer are estimated at 6.03 billion yuan in 2025, 6.39 billion yuan in 2026, and 6.77 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 982 million yuan, 1.105 billion yuan, and 1.237 billion yuan [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.44 yuan in 2025, 0.50 yuan in 2026, and 0.56 yuan in 2027 [2][4].