三只松鼠（300783）：淡季利润承压，分销顺利拓展

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.48 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 140 million yuan, down 52.2% year-on-year [1] - The "D+N" strategy continues to drive distribution growth, with online channel revenue increasing by 5.0% to 4.3 billion yuan in H1 2025, and offline distribution revenue growing by 40.2% to 940 million yuan [2][4] - The company is in a critical phase of channel expansion, with increased costs impacting profitability, as the gross margin decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 25.1% in H1 2025 [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.48 billion yuan, with Q2 revenue reaching 1.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8 [1][2] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was -100 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of -110 million yuan [1] Distribution and Channel Strategy - The company is focusing on a "high-end cost-performance" strategy, expanding its distribution channels and product categories, which includes a successful offline distribution business [2][4] - The company has 450 offline stores, generating 190 million yuan in revenue, with a significant portion coming from its community snack stores [2] Financial Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 25.1%, with a net profit margin of 2.5%, reflecting pressure from increased distribution costs [3] - The company expects revenue growth of 15.2%, 18.5%, and 15.4% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit projections of 284 million yuan, 391 million yuan, and 522 million yuan for the same years [4][9]