YILI(SH:600887) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-28 13:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 61.93 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.4% to 7.2 billion yuan [6][7]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 11.38 billion, 12.14 billion, and 12.82 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 34.6%, 6.7%, and 5.6% [6][7]. - The company's valuation has reached a ten-year low, and it has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of over 70% in the past three years, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 36.0%, an increase of 1.18 percentage points year-on-year. The revenue breakdown shows liquid milk, milk powder, and cold drinks generated revenues of 36.13 billion, 16.58 billion, and 8.23 billion yuan respectively [6][7]. - The company’s operating expenses have been optimized, with a decrease in sales expenses due to reduced advertising costs, while management expenses have been controlled effectively [7]. - The company’s net profit margin for H1 2025 was 11.33%, an increase of 2.44 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved gross margins and reduced sales expenses [7][8].