WLY(SZ:000858) Guohai Securities·2025-08-28 13:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's performance shows resilience, with a focus on channel reform and steady growth in revenue and profit [4][8] - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 52.771 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.492 billion yuan, up 2.28% year-on-year [8] - The company is expected to continue its marketing reforms and maintain a strong brand value, with a projected dividend payout of no less than 70% and at least 20 billion yuan (including tax) [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from Wuliangye products was 40.998 billion yuan, up 4.57% year-on-year, while other liquor products generated 8.122 billion yuan, an increase of 2.73% [8] - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 15.831 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.10%, but net profit decreased by 7.58% [8] - The company’s gross profit margin in Q2 2025 was 74.69%, down 0.32 percentage points year-on-year [8] Market and Channel Analysis - Revenue from the eastern region in H1 2025 was 20.109 billion yuan, up 7.88% year-on-year, indicating significant growth in this market [8] - The company’s wholesale and direct sales channels generated revenues of 27.925 billion yuan and 21.195 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 8.60% and 1.20% [8] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company’s net profit margin recorded in Q2 2025 was 30.11%, down 2.71 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Operating cash flow showed stability, with a year-on-year increase of 18.40% in Q2 2025 [8] Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 90.870 billion yuan, 93.050 billion yuan, and 98.540 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 31.945 billion yuan, 32.358 billion yuan, and 34.384 billion yuan [10][11] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.23 yuan, 8.34 yuan, and 8.86 yuan, respectively [10][11]