YTL(SZ:000960) Tianfeng Securities·2025-08-28 13:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The company has exceeded production expectations for tin, zinc, and indium, with total non-ferrous metal production reaching 181,300 tons in H1 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.42% [2][3]. - The increase in tin prices, driven by tight supply, has positively impacted the company's gross margin for tin products, which reached 13.23% in H1 2025, up by 0.44 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company is enhancing the development of the Kafang mining area, which is expected to increase reserves and production of tungsten and tin, with significant resources identified [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 21.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.06 billion yuan, up 32.8% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 11.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit of 560 million yuan, reflecting an 18.8% increase year-on-year [1]. Production and Pricing - The company’s production of tin reached 48,100 tons in H1 2025, achieving 53.4% of the annual target, while zinc production was 69,800 tons, also at 53% of the target [2]. - The average price of tin futures was 265,500 yuan per ton in H1 2025, up 5.7% year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability [2]. Market Dynamics - The supply-demand dynamics for tin are favorable, with domestic apparent demand increasing by 5.4% year-on-year to 99,800 tons in the first seven months of 2025 [3]. - The shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected to support tin prices, enhancing downstream demand [3]. Resource Development - The Kafang mining area has significant untapped resources, including 131,200 tons of copper and 2,130 tons of tungsten, with a planned annual production capacity of 150,000 tons [4]. - The company has received mining quotas for tungsten, indicating ongoing development and potential for increased profitability from this resource [4]. Future Outlook - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 2.56 billion, 2.73 billion, and 3.04 billion yuan respectively, reflecting positive expectations for tin prices and production growth [4].