BAIRUN CORPORATION(SZ:002568) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-28 13:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced pressure on performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 1.49 billion yuan, down 8.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 390 million yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year. The second quarter saw revenue of 750 million yuan, down 9.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 210 million yuan, down 10.9% year-on-year. The performance aligns with expectations. The company has proactively adjusted its channel development strategy for ready-to-drink beverages, leading to a slight downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027. Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 790 million yuan (-40 million), 900 million yuan (-60 million), and 1.03 billion yuan (-60 million), representing year-on-year growth of 10.3%, 13.4%, and 14.4% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 37.0, 32.6, and 28.5 for the respective years [4][5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company's liquor product revenue was 1.3 billion yuan, down 9.4% year-on-year. The fluctuation in ready-to-drink beverages was due to proactive adjustments, including channel optimization and credit contraction, which reduced channel inventory significantly, leading to healthier and more stable development. The second half is expected to see improvements with the stabilization of the 358 series and the full rollout of new products [5][6] - The online retail channel revenue remained stable at 150 million yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year, while offline channel revenue was 1.31 billion yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year, primarily due to the company's proactive adjustments. Revenue in different regions showed varied performance, with significant declines in North and West China [6][7] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The gross margin in Q2 2025 slightly decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 71.00%, mainly due to product mix adjustments and commercial discounts. The management expense ratio increased significantly, primarily due to rising salary and depreciation costs. Consequently, the net profit margin in Q2 decreased by 0.42 percentage points to 27.63% [7][8] Financial Projections - The financial summary indicates projected revenues of 3.237 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 793 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. The gross margin is projected to be 69.9%, and the net margin is expected to be 24.5% [8][10]