周大生（002867）：2025年半年报点评：25Q2归母净利同比+31.3%，盈利能力显著回升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 2025 increased by 31.3% year-on-year, indicating a significant recovery in profitability [1] - The company has a strong focus on brand rejuvenation and product innovation, leveraging a multi-brand strategy to enhance market penetration [1] - The company reported a dividend payout ratio of 46% for H1 2025, with a total dividend of 9 CNY per 10 shares for the year [1] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 46 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 43.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.9 billion CNY, down 1.3% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company recorded revenue of 19.2 billion CNY, a decline of 38.5% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.4 billion CNY, reflecting a 31.3% increase year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 30.3%, up 12.0 percentage points year-on-year, driven by rising gold prices and improved product mix [1] Product and Market Strategy - The company has optimized its store structure, with a total of 4,718 brand terminals as of H1 2025, including 407 self-operated and 4,311 franchise stores [1] - The brand matrix strategy includes collaborations with national-level artisans and the introduction of products for various consumer scenarios, enhancing brand penetration [1] - The company aims to expand its consumer base through IP collaborations and product series targeting wedding and daily wear segments [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 11.1 billion CNY, 12.2 billion CNY, and 13.1 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 10.1%, 9.3%, and 7.6% [1] - The latest closing price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 13, 12, and 11 times for the years 2025 to 2027 [1]