Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported significant revenue and profit growth in H1 2025, with revenue reaching 10.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49%, and adjusted net profit of 160 million yuan, up 139% [7]. - The company's diversified growth is driven by the demand spillover from the food delivery battle, with revenue from merchant same-city delivery services increasing by 55% to 4.47 billion yuan [7]. - The last-mile delivery service revenue also saw a 57% increase, reaching 4.46 billion yuan, attributed to high growth in group e-commerce orders and efficient rider management [7]. - Consumer-facing same-city delivery services grew steadily, with revenue of 1.31 billion yuan, a 13% increase, indicating significant future growth potential [7]. - The company is experiencing continuous scale effects, with a gross margin of 6.7% and an adjusted net profit margin of 1.6%, and is expected to further improve net profit margins through increased order density and AI optimization [7]. - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised, with expected net profits of 302 million yuan, 501 million yuan, and 920 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 127.87%, 66.02%, and 83.68% [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 12.4 billion yuan - 2024: 15.746 billion yuan - 2025E: 21.008 billion yuan - 2026E: 28.087 billion yuan - 2027E: 36.778 billion yuan - The corresponding year-on-year growth rates are 20.80%, 26.98%, 33.42%, 33.69%, and 30.95% [4]. - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023: 51 million yuan - 2024: 132 million yuan - 2025E: 302 million yuan - 2026E: 501 million yuan - 2027E: 920 million yuan - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are 39.78x, 23.96x, and 13.04x respectively [4][8].
顺丰同城（09699）：需求多元化增长，规模效应持续释放