云图控股（002539）：磷复肥业务收入占比提升，磷矿项目进展顺利

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][21][23] Core Views - The company's revenue from phosphate fertilizer business has significantly increased, with a revenue share of 63.35% in the first half of 2025, up 9.36% year-on-year. The overall revenue for the first half of 2025 was 11.4 billion yuan, a 3.59% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 511 million yuan, reflecting a 12.60% growth [1][7][21] - The company is actively expanding its upstream resource layout, with steady progress in its synthetic ammonia project and phosphate mining projects, enhancing its complete industrial chain from upstream phosphate resources to downstream nitrogen fertilizers [3][18][21] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.4 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 11.99%, an increase of 1.45 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 4.48%, up 0.35 percentage points year-on-year [1][7] - The revenue from the phosphate fertilizer business reached 7.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.55%, indicating stable growth in sales volume [1][11] Market Dynamics - The light soda ash market remains sluggish, with a sales revenue of 323 million yuan and a gross margin of 12.32% in the first half of 2025. The average price of light soda ash dropped by 34.71% year-on-year [2][14] - The yellow phosphorus segment saw a revenue of 620 million yuan with a gross margin of 19.87%, and the average market price increased by 3.32% year-on-year [2][17] Strategic Developments - The company is developing strategic bases in Guangxi and Xinjiang to fill regional capacity gaps, with a focus on high-margin soluble fertilizers and new types of fertilizers [1][11] - The synthetic ammonia project of 700,000 tons is progressing smoothly, and the phosphate mining projects are entering the construction phase, which will enhance resource self-sufficiency [3][18][21] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company has been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 1 billion yuan, 1.21 billion yuan, and 1.36 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.83 yuan, 1.00 yuan, and 1.13 yuan [3][21][24]