SF Holding(SZ:002352) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-28 14:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 146.9 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.74 billion yuan, up 19.4% year-on-year [6] - The company continues to implement its activation strategy, resulting in a significant increase in business volume, with a total of 7.85 billion items handled in H1 2025, a growth of 25.7% year-on-year [6] - The operational efficiency of the company's Ezhou hub has improved, contributing to international business growth, with supply chain and international revenue reaching 34.2 billion yuan, a 9.7% increase year-on-year [6] - The peak of capital expenditure has passed, with a focus on shareholder returns, including a cash dividend of 2.32 billion yuan in mid-2025, representing a 40% payout ratio [6] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 11.82 billion yuan, 13.59 billion yuan, and 15.31 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21, 18, and 16 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 309.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected at 11.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.2% [5] - Earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 2.35 yuan [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 13.9% for 2025 [5]