兴业银行（601166）：经营进入改善通道

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's profitability momentum is recovering, and asset quality is improving [1][2] - The bank's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 decreased by 2.3% and increased by 0.2% year-on-year, respectively, showing improvements compared to Q1 2025 [2] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.08% as of the end of Q2 2025, with a provision coverage ratio of 229% [1][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Profitability Improvement - In H1 2025, the bank's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.3% and increased by 0.2% year-on-year, respectively, showing improvements of 1.3 percentage points and 2.4 percentage points compared to Q1 2025 [2] - Non-interest income decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, significantly improving from a 12.4% decline in Q1 2025, supported by a recovery in the bond market [2] - Impairment losses decreased by 12.2% year-on-year, further supporting profitability [2] Interest Margin Decline - The bank's interest margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 8 basis points to 1.51% [3] - The yield on assets decreased by 14 basis points to 3.27%, primarily due to industry-wide factors affecting market and loan rates [3] - The cost of liabilities improved by 6 basis points to 1.79%, benefiting from deposit rate reductions and optimized liability structure [3] Asset Quality Improvement - As of the end of H1 2025, the non-performing loan ratio and attention loan ratio remained stable and decreased by 5 basis points to 1.08% and 1.66%, respectively [4] - The generation rate of non-performing and attention loans improved significantly by 41 basis points year-on-year to 1.26% [4] - The improvement in asset quality is mainly attributed to the real estate and local government financing sectors [4] Future Outlook - The bank is expected to gradually release impairment pressure, supporting stable profitability [5] - Forecasted net profit growth for 2025-2027 is 1.56%, 3.60%, and 5.75%, respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 39.10, 41.68, and 44.45 yuan [5] - The target price is maintained at 25.82 yuan per share, corresponding to a 2025 price-to-book ratio of 0.66x, indicating a potential upside of 13% [5]