CMES(SH:601872) Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-08-29 01:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in Q2 performance, with expectations for a synergy between oil and bulk shipping markets [6] - The company achieved a revenue of 12.585 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.125 billion yuan, down 14.91% year-on-year [8] - The report anticipates a positive outlook for the oil and bulk shipping markets, driven by OPEC+ production increases and a recovery in demand for dry bulk shipping [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 25.881 billion yuan in 2023, 25.799 billion yuan in 2024, 26.958 billion yuan in 2025E, 30.436 billion yuan in 2026E, and 31.502 billion yuan in 2027E, with a growth rate of 4.49% in 2025 [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.837 billion yuan in 2023, 5.107 billion yuan in 2024, 5.330 billion yuan in 2025E, 7.609 billion yuan in 2026E, and 8.034 billion yuan in 2027E, with a growth rate of 4.35% in 2025 [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.60 yuan in 2023, 0.63 yuan in 2024, 0.66 yuan in 2025E, 0.94 yuan in 2026E, and 0.99 yuan in 2027E [7] Segment Performance - In the first half of 2025, the oil tanker segment generated a net profit of 1.293 billion yuan, down 22.81% year-on-year; the dry bulk segment's net profit was 422 million yuan, down 47.25%; the container segment saw a net profit of 628 million yuan, up 161.67%; and the roll-on/roll-off segment's net profit was 106 million yuan, down 37.65% [8] - The report notes that the company continues to expand its container shipping capacity and enhance customer service, leading to significant profit growth in the container segment [8] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the oil shipping market may see increased demand due to OPEC+ production increases, which could lead to a tightening supply and rising freight rates [8] - The dry bulk market is expected to recover in the second half of 2025, supported by domestic demand and the anticipated production of iron ore and bauxite in Guinea [8] - The container shipping market is projected to benefit from favorable tariff policies in Southeast Asia and South America, creating structural growth opportunities [8]