温氏股份（300498）：生猪业务盈利强劲，黄鸡行情低迷拖累25H1业绩

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [7]. Core Views - The company has shown strong profitability in its pig farming business, while the poultry segment has been negatively impacted by low prices, leading to a mixed performance in H1 2025 [1][5]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its cost leadership and stable production levels, with projections for revenue growth and profitability in the coming years [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming Business - In Q2 2025, the company sold 9.34 million pigs, a 9% increase quarter-on-quarter, with an average price of 14.7 CNY/kg, down 3% from the previous quarter. The profit from the pig segment was approximately 2.6 billion CNY, with a per-head profit of about 270-280 CNY [2]. - In H1 2025, the company sold 17.93 million pigs, a 25% increase year-on-year, with an average price of 14.9 CNY/kg, down 2% year-on-year. The profit from the pig segment was 5.1 billion CNY, with a per-head profit of about 280-290 CNY [2]. 2. Poultry Business - In Q2 2025, the company sold 316 million chickens, a 12% increase quarter-on-quarter, with an average price of 10.76 CNY/kg, down 1% from the previous quarter. The poultry segment incurred a loss of approximately 900 million CNY, with a per-chicken loss of about 2-3 CNY [3]. - In H1 2025, the company sold 598 million chickens, a 9% increase year-on-year, with an average price of 10.84 CNY/kg, down 18% year-on-year. The poultry segment's loss was about 1.2 billion CNY, with a per-chicken loss of about 2 CNY [3]. 3. Future Outlook - The company expects stable pig production, with a June 2025 pig market release rate of approximately 93% and a feed-to-meat ratio of 2.55. The comprehensive cost of pig farming decreased to 6.2 CNY/kg in H1 2025, down 1.2 CNY/kg year-on-year [4]. - For poultry, the company plans to maintain a sales growth rate of 5%-10% annually. The cost of chicken production is expected to stabilize, with a total cost of 5.6 CNY/kg in H1 2025, down 0.6 CNY/kg year-on-year. Chicken prices have started to recover, reaching 6.4 CNY/kg in August 2025 [4]. 4. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 101.3 billion CNY, 114.8 billion CNY, and 126.2 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with expected net profits of 9.4 billion CNY, 17.8 billion CNY, and 20.5 billion CNY for the same years [5][6].