TKGF(SH:601233) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-29 04:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q2 performance of the company met expectations, and there is optimism regarding the recovery of long filament profitability. The company reported a H1 2025 revenue of 44.158 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.097 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.93% [5][6] - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.541 billion yuan, 3.648 billion yuan, and 4.274 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.06, 1.52, and 1.78 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 13.6, 9.5, and 8.1 times for the respective years [5][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company produced and sold 6.54 million tons and 5.95 million tons of polyester filament respectively, with a production and sales rate of 91.0%. In Q2, production and sales were 3.25 million tons and 3.45 million tons, showing a quarter-on-quarter change of -1.3% and +38.2% respectively [6] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin for H1 2025 were 6.76% and 2.50%, while for Q2 2025, they were 6.01% and 1.98%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.70 percentage points and 1.18 percentage points respectively [6] - The average price difference for polyester filament POY in Q2 2025 was 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.27% from Q1 2025. Conversely, the PTA price difference increased to 248 yuan/ton, up 72.01% from Q1 2025, indicating improved PTA profitability [6] Market Outlook - The inventory levels for polyester filament products are currently low, with POY, FDY, and DTY having inventory days of 16, 18.7, and 25.4 days respectively. The upcoming demand peak in September and October is expected to enhance profitability for filament products [7] - The long filament industry has passed its peak production phase, and future capacity growth is expected to slow down. The industry is characterized by high concentration, which may enhance pricing power and synergy effects for leading companies, supporting long-term profitability recovery [7]