lu'an EED(SH:601699) HTSC·2025-08-29 04:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Buy" with a target price of RMB 17.69 [2][8][10] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in gross profit margin and anticipates improved profitability in the second half of the year [1][10] - The company has demonstrated strong cost control, leading to a sequential recovery in performance despite a decline in coal prices [6][8] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company has been raised significantly for 2025-2027, reflecting a positive outlook on coal prices and operational efficiency [8][20] Financial Data Summary - As of August 28, the closing price was RMB 13.04, with a market capitalization of RMB 39,008 million [2] - The company reported a revenue of RMB 14.069 billion for the first half of 2025, down 20.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.348 billion, down 39.4% year-on-year [6] - The gross profit margin for the second quarter of 2025 improved to 39.5%, up 1 percentage point from the previous quarter [6][8] - The company’s production and sales of raw coal reached 28.63 million tons and 25.25 million tons respectively in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and 2.9% [6][7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to a net profit of RMB 3.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.7% [8][20] - The report estimates the company's EBITDA for 2026 at RMB 10,130.4 million, applying a valuation multiple of 3.59x EV/EBITDA [21] - The projected dividend yield is expected to increase to 5.60% by 2027 [5][8]