AECC AP(SH:600893) HTSC·2025-08-29 04:52Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 43.55 [7][5]. Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 has been under pressure, with revenue of RMB 14.098 billion, down 23.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 91.78 million, down 84.57% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to delayed domestic military product demand and lower gross margins due to the immature assembly of new engine models [1][2]. - Despite short-term challenges, the company is viewed positively for its long-term strategic position as the only listed platform for military aviation engines in China, indicating significant growth potential [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 14.098 billion, a decrease of 23.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 91.78 million, down 84.57% year-on-year. The Q2 revenue was RMB 7.934 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 35.37% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.69% [1]. - The gross margin for aviation engines and related products was 10.03%, down 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, while the overall gross margin was 10.96%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points [2]. Expense Analysis - The company's expense ratio increased to 9.13%, up 2.02 percentage points year-on-year. R&D expenses rose to RMB 214 million, a 14.54% increase year-on-year, while financial expenses surged by 71.12% to RMB 256 million due to increased interest costs [3]. Subsidiary Performance - Most subsidiaries experienced revenue declines, with the company focusing on developing small and medium-sized civil aviation engines. The AES100 engine received production certification, marking a significant milestone in its market entry [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are RMB 50.471 billion, RMB 58.067 billion, and RMB 66.823 billion, respectively. The report suggests a PS valuation method, assigning a PS multiple of 2.3 for 2025, leading to a target price of RMB 43.55 [5][11].