CBMT(SH:603099) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-29 06:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][14] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from increased summer tourist traffic due to IP marketing, with a significant improvement in transportation in Q4, setting the stage for a new growth cycle [1][7] - Despite a challenging H1 2025 with a revenue decline of 7.4% year-on-year to 2.35 billion yuan and a net profit loss, the outlook for the second half of the year is optimistic due to expected increases in tourist flow and cost reductions [5][6] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 1.98 billion yuan, 2.35 billion yuan, and 2.78 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 37.6%, 18.3%, and 18.5% [5][8] Financial Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.35 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year, with a net loss of 0.02 billion yuan compared to a profit of 0.21 billion yuan in H1 2024 [5] - The company’s revenue for Q2 2025 was 1.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.7% year-on-year, with a net loss of 0.06 billion yuan [5] - The company’s total market capitalization is 11.461 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 42.98 yuan [3] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company expects to achieve revenues of 856 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15.1%, and net profits of 198 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.6% [8][10] - The projected EPS for 2025 is 0.74 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 44, 37.2, and 31.4 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][8] Operational Insights - The company’s transportation business is showing signs of stabilization, with a slight increase in customer spending despite a decline in overall revenue [6] - The company is leveraging IP marketing and events to boost summer visitor numbers, with July seeing a record 810,200 visitors, a 37.8% increase year-on-year [7]