SA(SH:601021) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-08-29 06:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - The company is expected to see improved profitability, with a projected net profit of 2.664 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 17% year-over-year growth [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.43 yuan per share, totaling 4.18 billion yuan, which is 35.74% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [4] - The company maintains a low exposure to foreign exchange risks, with a net exchange loss of 19.89 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 17.938 billion yuan in 2023 to 27.496 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% [2] - The net profit is expected to increase from 2.257 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.007 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 24% [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 2.31 yuan in 2023 to 4.09 yuan in 2027 [2] Operational Highlights - The company achieved a passenger load factor of 90.52% in the first half of 2025, slightly down by 0.79 percentage points year-over-year, maintaining an industry-leading position [4] - The average ticket price decreased by 4.24% year-over-year, with domestic and international revenue per passenger kilometer showing mixed results [4] - The company’s operational capacity increased, with a 9% year-over-year growth in overall capacity in the first half of 2025 [4] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 23.4 in 2023 to 13.2 in 2027 [2] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.4 in 2023 to 2.0 in 2027 [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 14% in 2023 to 15% in 2027 [2]