山西汾酒（600809）：2025年半年报点评：Q2调整节奏，静待需求改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% in the next six months [1][5][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 23.964 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.35%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.505 billion yuan, up 1.13% year-on-year [5]. - In Q2 2025, the company adjusted its operational pace due to a traditional consumption off-season, resulting in a revenue of 7.441 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.45% year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 13.50% to 1.857 billion yuan [5]. - The company continues to expand its national presence, with revenue from domestic markets reaching 8.732 billion yuan (up 4.04% year-on-year) and from external markets at 15.143 billion yuan (up 6.15% year-on-year) in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 3.21 percentage points to 71.88%, while the net profit margin fell by 4.03 percentage points to 25.10% due to weak demand recovery and channel adjustments [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 23.964 billion yuan, with a 5.35% increase year-on-year [5]. - Q2 revenue was 7.441 billion yuan, showing a 0.45% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 1.857 billion yuan, down 13.50% [5]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 71.88% in Q2 2025, down from the previous year [5]. Product and Market Strategy - The company reported a revenue of 23.391 billion yuan from Fenjiu products, up 5.75% year-on-year, while other liquor categories saw a decline of 10.55% to 0.484 billion yuan [5]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its national market presence, with significant revenue growth in both domestic and external markets [5]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 9.77 yuan and 10.41 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20 and 19 [5][6].