JUMPCAN(SH:600566) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-08-29 07:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jichuan Pharmaceutical is maintained as "Buy" [1][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to reach an inflection point in performance, supported by high dividends and business development catalysts [1]. - The first half of 2025 saw a significant decline in revenue and net profit due to high base effects from the flu market and price reductions from centralized procurement [7]. - The company has effectively controlled marketing expenses, leading to a 39.33% year-on-year decrease in sales expenses for the first half of 2025 [7]. - There is an expectation for sequential improvement in performance in the second half of 2025 as inventory levels normalize and terminal demand increases [7]. - The company has consistently increased its cash dividend payout ratio, reaching 75.90% in 2024, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [7]. - Jichuan Pharmaceutical is focusing on enhancing its product pipeline through research and collaboration, with several new products expected to launch in the coming years [7]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is projected to be 18.03 billion, 19.86 billion, and 23.11 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.96, 2.16, and 2.51 [7]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, Jichuan Pharmaceutical reported revenue of 2.749 billion (down 31.87% year-on-year) and a net profit of 724 million (down 45.87% year-on-year) [7]. - The company anticipates a revenue decline of 16.96% in 2024, followed by a further decline of 20.53% in 2025, before a recovery in subsequent years [3][7]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 13.18, 11.96, and 10.28 respectively, indicating a potential for valuation improvement as earnings recover [3][7].