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安宁股份(002978):钛矿景气有所下行,并购钛矿巩固优势

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 38.60 [1][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.1 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 31%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 440 million, up 0.6% year-on-year [1]. - The average price of titanium ore in the first half of 2025 decreased by 6.8% to RMB 1,944 per ton, impacting the gross margin of the titanium ore business [2]. - The company has completed the acquisition of 100% equity in Panzhihua's titanium ore assets, enhancing its competitive position in the titanium ore sector [3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 60.1%, down 7.8 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 50.45% [2][4]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to RMB 910 million, RMB 1.064 billion, and RMB 1.139 billion respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 11% for 2025 and 2026 [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at RMB 1.93, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17x for 2025 and 20x for 2026 [4][8]. Market Conditions - The demand for titanium ore is currently under pressure, with downstream demand for titanium dioxide also facing challenges [3]. - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for titanium ore is positive due to a decrease in global exploration capital expenditure and a scarcity of high-grade ore resources [3].