涪陵榨菜（002507）：榨菜需求企稳，增投费用致利润承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The demand for pickled vegetables has stabilized, but increased investment expenses have put pressure on profits [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.31 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 440 million yuan, a decrease of 1.7% [5] - The core pickled vegetable business remains stable, with significant growth in the radish category due to increased promotion of new products [6] - The company is focusing on optimizing its distribution channels and expanding into new product categories, including a planned acquisition to enter the compound seasoning market [8] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, revenue from pickled vegetables, radishes, pickles, and other products was 1.123 billion, 33 million, 119 million, and 37 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.45%, +38.35%, -8.37%, and +9.30% [6] - Direct sales and distribution revenue were 74 million and 1.237 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +11.13% and -0.08% [6] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 54.15%, an increase of 3.29 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to cost benefits from low-priced raw materials acquired in 2024 [7] - The sales expense ratio increased to 14.87% in H1 2025, reflecting higher marketing and promotional expenditures [7] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 33.57%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year [7] Growth Strategy - The company is implementing a strategy of "consolidating the foundation and expanding innovation," focusing on product optimization and channel strengthening [8] - New product launches and channel expansions are expected to drive growth, with a focus on the B-end market [8] - The planned acquisition of Weizimei aims to enhance the company's presence in the compound seasoning sector, potentially creating synergies in both B-end and C-end markets [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 820 million, 879 million, and 925 million yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 7%, 6%, and 7% [9] - The estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 0.71, 0.76, and 0.80 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19x, 17x, and 17x [9][10]