CSCEC(SH:601668) HTSC·2025-08-29 08:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 9.44 [7][5]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong resilience in its operations during H1 2025, with revenue of RMB 1,108.31 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 30.40 billion, an increase of 3.24% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from supportive policies aimed at stabilizing growth in the second half of the year, leading to improved operational performance [1]. - The company’s new contract signings in the first seven months of 2025 increased by 1.4% year-on-year, indicating robust operational capabilities [4]. Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the company’s revenue from different segments was as follows: RMB 696.4 billion from housing construction (down 7.1% year-on-year), RMB 273.4 billion from infrastructure (up 1.5% year-on-year), and RMB 4.9 billion from surveying and design (up 9.0% year-on-year) [2]. - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 9.43%, slightly down by 0.02 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q2 2025 was 11.01%, up by 0.31 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company’s net profit margin improved to 2.74% in H1 2025, an increase of 0.17 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant improvement in cash flow, showing a net cash outflow of RMB 82.8 billion, which is RMB 25.9 billion less than the previous year [3]. - The operating cash flow for Q2 2025 was RMB 13 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of RMB 25.2 billion [3]. Order Book and Future Outlook - The company signed new construction contracts worth RMB 2.5 trillion in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, with significant growth in infrastructure contracts [4]. - The company’s real estate segment saw a revenue increase of 13.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 16.0%, despite a decrease in sales area by 3.3% [2]. Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be RMB 46.79 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 5 for the construction segment and 14 for the real estate segment [5][11]. - The target price adjustment reflects a valuation based on comparable companies, with the new target price set at RMB 9.44, up from RMB 8.60 [5].