KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Dongguan Securities·2025-08-29 08:07Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [63]. Core Insights - The performance of the food and beverage industry is showing divergence, particularly in the liquor sector, where the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to boost sales [58]. - The report highlights the strong performance of high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai, while other brands like Wuliangye and Yanghe have shown varying degrees of decline in their performance [58]. - The report suggests focusing on high-certainty stocks in the liquor sector, such as Kweichow Moutai (600519), and also recommends attention to mid-range and regional liquor brands like Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) and Gujing Gongjiu (000596) [58]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From August 15 to August 28, 2025, the SW food and beverage industry index rose by 3.04%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 3.92 percentage points [14]. - Most sub-sectors underperformed the CSI 300 index, with the other liquor sector showing the highest increase of 7.50%, while the meat products sector had the largest decline at -0.73% [15][19]. Industry Data Tracking Liquor Sector - The prices of Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye have decreased, with Feitian's price at 1810 RMB/bottle, down 50 RMB from August 14 [25]. Seasoning Sector - Prices for soybean meal and white sugar have decreased, with soybean meal at 3102 RMB/ton, down 24 RMB from August 14 [27]. Beer Sector - Barley prices increased slightly to 2232.50 RMB/ton, while glass prices decreased to 13.88 RMB/square meter [33]. Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk remained stable at 3.02 RMB/kg [39]. Meat Products Sector - The average wholesale price of pork decreased to 19.82 RMB/kg, down 0.41 RMB from August 14 [41]. Important News - The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol reached 374 billion RMB in the first seven months of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [44]. - Beer exports increased by 22.1% year-on-year in the first seven months, while imports saw a slight decline [45]. Company Announcements - Kweichow Moutai reported stable growth in the first half of 2025, while other brands like Yanghe and Wuliangye reported significant declines in revenue and profit [50][52].