YILI(SH:600887) Dongguan Securities·2025-08-29 08:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% in the next six months [4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 619.33 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.37%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.39% to 72.00 billion yuan. In Q2 2025, revenue grew by 5.77% year-on-year to 289.15 billion yuan, while net profit increased significantly by 44.65% to 23.26 billion yuan due to a low base from the previous year [4]. - The company's product performance showed a mixed trend, with liquid milk revenue declining by 0.84% year-on-year to 164.86 billion yuan in Q2 2025, while milk powder and dairy products grew by 9.66% to 77.65 billion yuan, and cold drink revenue surged by 37.97% to 41.24 billion yuan [4]. - The gross margin improved to 34.19% in Q2 2025, an increase of 0.61 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost reductions in raw materials. The net profit margin also increased by 2.00 percentage points to 7.94% [4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 1198.32 billion yuan in 2025 and 1246.25 billion yuan in 2026, with net profits expected to reach 110.81 billion yuan and 118.62 billion yuan respectively. The earnings per share are forecasted to be 1.75 yuan in 2025 and 1.87 yuan in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 16 times and 15 times [5].