ENN-NG(SH:600803) Soochow Securities·2025-08-29 08:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][20]. Core Views - The company's core profit is steadily increasing, and the privatization process is progressing smoothly. The retail gas price difference is expected to further recover, and direct sales gas volume continues to grow. The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2026-2027 downwards while maintaining the 2025 forecast [3][20]. - The privatization of Xin'ao Energy and its subsequent listing in Hong Kong is anticipated to enhance EPS and highlight the advantages of integration. The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio from 2026 to 2028 [3][15][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 660.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.08 billion yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year. Core profit reached 27.36 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4% year-on-year [9][10]. - The natural gas business generated revenue of 522.19 billion yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 54.44 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year [10][12]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 51.47 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.56%. The EPS is projected at 1.66 yuan, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 11.3 times [3][20]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of at least 1.14 yuan per share in 2025, with a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% from 2026 to 2028, indicating a dividend yield of 6.1% for 2025 [3][16][20]. Business Segments - The report highlights that the core profit growth is primarily driven by the increase in gross profit from the receiving station and methanol business, despite the volatility in methanol profitability [3][9]. - The company is actively expanding its customer base and enhancing its service offerings in the natural gas sector, with a focus on residential and commercial users [11][18]. Market Outlook - The demand for natural gas is expected to grow steadily, with a compound annual growth rate of 9% from 2023 to 2030. The company's integrated layout is anticipated to support stable development in the natural gas industry [17][18].