顺鑫农业（000860）：需求平淡，盈利承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.59 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 170 million for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 19.2% and 59.1% respectively [1][2]. - The pork supply is abundant, but consumer demand remains weak, leading to a downward trend in pork prices. The white liquor business is also under pressure due to external factors affecting demand [2][3]. - The company is actively promoting product upgrades and innovative marketing strategies. Following the divestment of its real estate business, the company's main operations are clearer, with potential benefits from the demand for staple liquor in the future [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the white liquor segment generated revenue of 3.61 billion, down 23.2% year-on-year, with high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor revenues of 530 million, 500 million, and 2.58 billion respectively [2]. - The gross margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 34.3%, with a significant increase in sales and management expenses [3]. - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 3.8%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 7.66 billion, 7.89 billion, and 8.21 billion respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 16.1% in 2025 [4][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been reduced to 0.15, 0.19, and 0.24 yuan, reflecting a significant downward adjustment [4][12]. - The target price for the company is set at 18.24 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 96 times for 2026 [4][7].