CSCEC(SH:601668) CAITONG SECURITIES·2025-08-29 09:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1,108.31 billion yuan in 1H2025, a decrease of 3.17% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 30.40 billion yuan, an increase of 3.24% year-on-year [7] - The company continues to optimize its business structure, with significant growth in new contracts in municipal, energy, and water conservancy sectors, contributing to the increase in infrastructure new contracts [7] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 47.76 billion yuan, 49.31 billion yuan, and 51.46 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 4.81, 4.66, and 4.46 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023A was 2,265.53 million yuan, with a growth rate of 10.2%, while the forecast for 2024A is 2,187.15 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.5% [5] - The net profit for 2023A was 54.26 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.5%, and is expected to decrease to 46.19 billion yuan in 2024A, a decline of 14.9% [5] - The company's EPS for 2023A was 1.31 yuan, projected to decrease to 1.11 yuan in 2024A, and then recover to 1.16 yuan in 2025E [5] Business Segments - In 1H2025, the company achieved revenues of 696.38 billion yuan from housing construction, 273.43 billion yuan from infrastructure, 131.88 billion yuan from real estate development, and 4.93 billion yuan from design, with respective year-on-year changes of -7.10%, 1.50%, 13.30%, and -9.00% [7] - The gross profit margins for these segments were 7.30%, 10.20%, 16.00%, and 16.20%, showing slight variations compared to the previous year [7] Order Situation - The company secured new contracts worth 2,326.5 billion yuan in 1H2025, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year, with housing construction, infrastructure, and design segments contributing 1,496.4 billion yuan, 823.7 billion yuan, and 6.4 billion yuan respectively [7] - Notably, the industrial plant segment within housing construction saw a significant increase in new contracts, amounting to 452.2 billion yuan, a growth of 16.2% [7] Cash Flow and Profitability - The operating cash flow for 1H2025 showed a net outflow of 82.83 billion yuan, which is a reduction of 25.94 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [7] - The net profit margin improved to 2.74%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points year-on-year [7]