苏州银行（002966）：异地信贷贡献再提升，稳业绩高拨备获耐心资本增持

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Suzhou Bank [2] Core Views - Suzhou Bank's performance in the first half of 2025 shows a revenue of 6.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.13 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year [5][7] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.83% in the second quarter of 2025, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 9.3 percentage points to 438% [5][7] - The bank's interest income growth has turned positive, driven by an increase in asset scale and a slowdown in the decline of interest margins [7][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for Suzhou Bank from 2023 to 2027 is as follows: - 2023: 11,866.12 million yuan - 2024: 12,223.79 million yuan - 2025E: 12,621.08 million yuan - 2026E: 13,415.66 million yuan - 2027E: 14,377.10 million yuan - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 4,600.65 million yuan in 2023 to 6,353.92 million yuan in 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.34% in 2025 [6][10] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline slightly from 11.96% in 2023 to 10.70% in 2027 [6] Credit and Asset Quality - The bank's credit growth in the first half of 2025 was primarily driven by corporate loans, with a total of 301 billion yuan in new loans [10][11] - The bank's focus on improving asset quality is evident, with a significant increase in provisions for credit impairment losses, reflecting a proactive approach to risk management [7][10] - The contribution of non-performing loans from retail banking has increased, with the retail non-performing loan ratio rising to 1.80% [10][12] Market Position and Shareholder Confidence - The first major shareholder, Guofang Group, increased its stake to 14.92%, indicating growing confidence in the bank's performance [7][10] - The bank's strategy of expanding its presence in out-of-province branches has contributed to asset growth, with these branches accounting for 40% of the asset increase in the first half of 2025 [10][14]