浙江自然（605080）：二季度关税扰动影响发货节奏，产品结构变化致毛利率下滑

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][34]. Core Views - The company experienced a 14% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with a net profit increase of 44.5% to 146 million yuan. However, the gross margin declined by 2.1% to 35.1% due to changes in product structure and an increase in the proportion of lower-margin new product categories [1][4]. - The second quarter saw a slowdown in revenue growth to 0.7% year-on-year, primarily due to tariff policy disruptions leading to delayed orders and lower production efficiency during the ramp-up of overseas capacity. The gross margin further declined by 5.1% year-on-year to 31.1% [2][3]. - Orders have returned to normal in the third quarter, with new customers and products driving growth. The company is expanding its market presence in the automotive camping sector and enhancing its product lines, particularly in water sports and insulated bags [3][33]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, revenue reached 690 million yuan, with a net profit of 146 million yuan. The gross margin was 35.1%, reflecting a decline due to product mix changes [1]. - The second quarter revenue was 329 million yuan, with a gross margin of 31.1%, down from previous periods [2]. - The company expects revenue to recover in the second half of the year as inventory issues are resolved [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 250 million yuan, 310 million yuan, and 380 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 34.2%, 26.2%, and 22.1% [4][34]. - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are set at 1.26 billion yuan, 1.64 billion yuan, and 2.10 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 26%, 30%, and 28% [29][38]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on stabilizing its core business while expanding into new markets and product lines, particularly in the automotive sector and outdoor products [3][33]. - The target price has been raised to 28.1-31.6 yuan, based on improved profit forecasts, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 16-18x for 2025 [4][34].