IMDTECL(SZ:002128) Guoxin Securities·2025-08-29 09:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][16]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance is under pressure due to rising costs, but the aluminum business shows resilience and the growth potential of the new energy sector remains promising [2][3][16]. - The company reported a revenue of 14.46 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.4% year-on-year [7][16]. Summary by Sections Coal Business - The coal business experienced a slight decline in coal prices, with an increase in costs. In H1 2025, the company produced and sold 22.63 million tons and 21.78 million tons of raw coal, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% and 2.0%. The average selling price was 201 yuan per ton, down by 1.4 yuan per ton, while the cost was 93 yuan per ton, up by 8 yuan per ton. Revenue and gross profit from the coal business were 4.5 billion yuan and 2.4 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% and 9.6% [11][16]. Aluminum Business - The aluminum business maintained stable production and sales, but the increase in costs outpaced the rise in aluminum prices, leading to a decline in gross profit. In H1 2025, the company produced and sold 452,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, with selling prices and costs at 17,711 yuan and 13,691 yuan per ton, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 409 yuan and 648 yuan. The aluminum segment generated revenue and gross profit of 8.1 billion yuan and 1.8 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 3% but a gross profit decline of 5% [2][11][16]. Power Business - The power business faced weak demand, particularly in thermal power, while new energy generation saw significant growth due to rapid increases in installed capacity and reduced costs. In H1 2025, thermal power generation and sales were 2.4 billion and 2.2 billion kWh, respectively, down 2.6% and 2.5% year-on-year. The thermal power segment reported revenue and gross profit of 800 million yuan and 200 million yuan, down 6% and 20% year-on-year. In contrast, combined solar and wind power generation reached 4.2 billion kWh, up 37% year-on-year, with revenue from wind power at 900 million yuan, up 44% year-on-year [3][14][16]. Financial Forecasts - The report maintains profit forecasts, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 5.6 billion, 5.8 billion, and 6.0 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The company is expected to benefit from the growth in new energy generation and the aluminum business, with a relatively high proportion of long-term coal contracts mitigating the impact of coal price declines [16][19].