大秦铁路（601006）：转型下的业绩波动，静待“铁路+物流”的转型红利

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is adjusted to "Outperform" [2][8] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 37.286 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 29.8% to 4.115 billion yuan, which was below expectations [8] - The significant decline in net profit is attributed to three main factors: a decrease in coal transportation volume by 30 million tons, increased freight service costs due to structural adjustments, and additional costs during the market cultivation period for new logistics services [8] - The company is undergoing a transformation towards "Railway + Logistics," aiming to enhance freight volume and efficiency through comprehensive logistics services, despite facing short-term performance pressures due to market conditions [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The financial projections for the company are as follows: - Total revenue is expected to be 77.702 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 4.1% - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 7.266 billion yuan for 2025, down from previous estimates [6][9] - Earnings per share are projected to be 0.36 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 17 [6][9]