Ligao Foods (SZ:300973) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-08-29 10:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company has shown robust revenue growth and continuous improvement in operational quality, with a revenue of 2.07 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.20% [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of the baking industry and the diversification of sales channels, with projected revenues of 4.46 billion yuan, 5.04 billion yuan, and 5.58 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 13%, and 11% [5][6] Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for 2023 was 3.50 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 3.83 billion yuan in 2024, and further growth to 4.46 billion yuan in 2025 [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 268 million yuan in 2024 to 343 million yuan in 2025, and 408 million yuan in 2026, indicating a year-on-year growth of 28% for 2025 [3][6] - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 30.35%, with a net profit margin of 8.25%, showing an improvement in profitability despite a slight decrease in gross margin compared to the previous year [5] Product and Channel Performance - The revenue structure indicates that frozen baked goods accounted for approximately 55% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of about 6%, while baking ingredients (cream, sauces, etc.) contributed around 45% with a growth of over 30% [5] - The company has successfully launched new products in key retail channels, achieving nearly 30% growth in supermarket sales, and over 40% growth in innovative channels such as restaurants and new retail [5] Financial Projections - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.58 yuan in 2025 to 2.79 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 23.9, 20.0, and 17.3 for the respective years [3][6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 10% in 2024 to 12.8% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability and efficiency [6]