First(SH:603806) Great Wall Securities·2025-08-29 10:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to face challenges due to declining prices of its film products and slower-than-expected industry cycles, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts. Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 177.31 billion, 197.46 billion, and 222.23 billion CNY, with net profits of 12.02 billion, 14.91 billion, and 19.59 billion CNY respectively [4][5]. - The company remains a leader in the photovoltaic film industry, maintaining stable market share and a diverse product range, which positions it well for future technological iterations and overseas capacity expansion [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 22,589 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.7%. However, projections indicate a decline in revenue for 2024 to 19,147 million CNY, a decrease of 15.2% [1][4]. - The net profit for 2023 is reported at 1,850 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 17.2%. The forecast for 2024 shows a significant drop to 1,308 million CNY, reflecting a decline of 29.3% [1][4]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 11.7% in 2023 to 7.8% in 2024, before gradually recovering to 10.1% by 2027 [1][4]. Segment Performance Summary - In the photovoltaic film segment, the company shipped 1.386 billion square meters in the first half of 2025, contributing 72.15 billion CNY in revenue, a decline of 26.97% year-on-year. The segment's gross margin fell to 11.4%, down 5.36 percentage points [2]. - The electronic materials segment has shown promising results, with sales of photosensitive dry film reaching 0.896 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 21.62%, contributing 3.25 billion CNY in revenue, up 17.93% [3]. - The company is also focusing on the functional film market, with aluminum-plastic film shipments of 6.6584 million square meters in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 18.77% increase year-on-year [3].