XINJI ENERGY(SH:601918) Guoxin Securities·2025-08-29 10:53Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Views - The company's performance has been under pressure due to declining coal and electricity prices, but growth in coal and electricity integration is expected [1][4]. - The company has a strong coal reserve and production capacity, which positions it well for future growth despite current challenges [2][14]. - The electricity business is anticipated to grow significantly with the commissioning of new power plants, although current electricity prices are declining [3][31]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, and a net profit of 920 million yuan, down 21.7% year-on-year [1][10]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 2.90 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 390 million yuan, down 32.8% year-on-year and 26.9% quarter-on-quarter [1][10]. Coal Business - The company produced 9.94 million tons of commercial coal in the first half of 2025, an increase of 6.2% year-on-year, with sales of 9.43 million tons, up 3.6% year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price of coal in the first half of 2025 was 529 yuan per ton, down 36 yuan per ton year-on-year, while the cost was 327 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan per ton year-on-year [2]. Electricity Business - The company generated 6.7 billion kWh of electricity in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 45%, with an average on-grid electricity price of 0.372 yuan per kWh, down 9.7% year-on-year [3]. - The commissioning of new power plants is expected to enhance the company's electricity generation capacity and improve profitability [3][31]. Investment Recommendations and Profit Forecast - The report forecasts net profits of 1.96 billion yuan in 2025, 2.48 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.63 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.4, 6.7, and 6.3 [4][63]. - The estimated stock price range is between 6.8 and 7.6 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 7% to 19% compared to the closing price on August 27 [4][63].