迈瑞医疗（300760）：1H25业绩承压，3Q25收入有望如期恢复增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 300, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price of RMB 247.08 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 1H25 was significantly under pressure, with revenue of RMB 16.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and a net profit of RMB 4.9 billion, down 33% year-on-year. However, there is a clear expectation for revenue recovery starting in 3Q25, with projected positive year-on-year growth [1][8]. - The report anticipates that the recovery in domestic equipment bidding projects will gradually convert into revenue, leading to further revenue growth in 4Q25. The low base effect from the previous year is expected to accelerate revenue and net profit growth in 2026 [1][8]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's revenue and net profit forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: - Revenue: RMB 34.93 billion in 2023, RMB 36.73 billion in 2024, RMB 37.08 billion in 2025E, RMB 45.94 billion in 2026E, and RMB 53.25 billion in 2027E, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.0%, 5.1%, 1.0%, 23.9%, and 15.9% respectively [2][10]. - Net profit: RMB 11.58 billion in 2023, RMB 11.67 billion in 2024, RMB 11.39 billion in 2025E, RMB 14.49 billion in 2026E, and RMB 17.40 billion in 2027E, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.6%, 0.7%, -2.4%, 27.2%, and 20.1% respectively [2][10]. - The report highlights that the company's international revenue is expected to continue to grow, with a projected double-digit growth rate for the second half of 2025 [1][8]. Segment Analysis - Domestic revenue saw a significant decline of 33% in 1H25, primarily due to prolonged weak bidding conditions for equipment, while international revenue grew by 5%, now accounting for 50% of total revenue [8]. - The report notes that the IVD segment experienced a 16% decline in revenue, attributed to price reductions from centralized procurement and a decrease in testing volumes due to policy changes. However, international IVD business showed resilience with a 12% growth [8].