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三一重能(688349):“双海”突破+价格回暖,弹性可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SANY Renewable Energy [6][4] Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 62.75% year-on-year for H1 2025, reaching 8.594 billion RMB, while net profit decreased by 51.54% to 210 million RMB [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue surge of 80.35% year-on-year and a 192.93% quarter-on-quarter increase, driven by high-margin power station product sales and reduced losses in wind turbine products [1] - Key growth drivers include the upward trend in profitability for domestic wind turbine operations, the successful implementation of the "Dual Sea" strategy, and steady progress in wind farm development [1][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 18.33 billion RMB from power station products, contributing 58% of the total gross profit with a gross margin of 28.8% [2] - Wind turbine sales reached a record capacity of 4.72 GW, a 44% increase year-on-year, with total orders exceeding 28 GW [2] Strategic Developments - The "Dual Sea" strategy is showing significant results, with overseas orders increasing by 1 GW in H1 2025 and total overseas orders exceeding 2 GW [3] - The company successfully entered the high-barrier offshore wind market with two projects totaling 450 MW [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.028 billion RMB, 2.636 billion RMB, and 3.276 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.65, 2.15, and 2.67 RMB [4] - The target price is raised to 38.01 RMB, reflecting an 11x EV/EBITDA valuation for 2026, indicating a more accurate reflection of the company's earnings potential [4]